Iraq
Intro
The Iraqi economy depends overwhelmingly on hydrocarbons. Political institutions remain divided along sectarian lines, with Baghdad mediating between Iranian and U.S. interests. The state’s capacity has improved since ISIS’s territorial defeat, yet corruption and militia influence constrain reform and investment.
Background
Modern Iraq emerged from Ottoman provinces under British mandate in 1920 and gained independence in 1932. The Ba’ath regime under Saddam Hussein centralized control until the 2003 U.S. invasion dismantled the state. Power fragmentation and sectarian conflict followed. Reconstruction has oscillated between oil windfalls and political paralysis.
History
- 1980-1988: Iran-Iraq War drains resources – 1990-1991: Gulf War; UN sanctions – 2003: U.S.-led invasion; regime collapse – 2014-2017: ISIS insurgency and territorial war – 2020s: Gradual stabilization, militia integration efforts
Present Day
In 2025, Baghdad mediates between Tehran and Riyadh while hosting international reconstruction conferences. Security is fragmented but improving. Oil exports surpass pre-pandemic levels amid infrastructure upgrades by Asian contractors.
Future Outlook
Iraq’s medium-term outlook hinges on governance reform and oil price stability. Federal-Kurdish relations over revenue sharing and Kirkuk oil fields remain unresolved. Incremental normalization and infrastructure renewal could restore limited regional influence.
Map
Articles
Iran’s Retaliation in Cold War Mode
How Tehran could turn confrontation in the Gulf into a strategic cost trap.
Event Timeline
Israeli Strikes in Tehran Killing Larijani
On the night of 16-17 March 2026, Israeli airstrikes in the Tehran area killed Ali Larijani (Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and de facto leader) and Gholamreza Soleimani (commander of Iran’s internal Basij militia).
Nationalisation of Iranian Oil and the Mossadegh Crisis
From 1951 to 1953, Iran nationalized its oil industry under Prime Minister Mossadegh, leading to an international crisis and the eventual 1953 coup.
Iran Hostage Crisis
In 1979, Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days and transforming U.S.-Iran relations.
Iranian Revolution
In 1979, a mass movement removed the Pahlavi monarchy and established the Islamic Republic, redefining Iran’s political and ideological system.
Reform Movement and the Khatami Presidency
From 1997 to 2005, Iran experienced a reform era focused on civic openness, political participation, and institutional debate.
Collapse of the Safavid Order and Afghan Conquest of Isfahan
In 1722, Afghan forces from Kandahar captured Isfahan, ending effective Safavid rule and opening a prolonged phase of political fragmentation across Iran.
