Since 2016, the reform cycle reduced currency controls, lowered tariffs, and eased business formation. Privatization, banking cleanup, and PPP pipelines target infrastructure and utilities; export promotion aims at textiles, fertilizers, copper, automotive parts, and food processing.

Historically closed, Uzbekistan’s new policy mix focuses on market access and regional connectivity. Urbanization and labor mobility feed MSME formation. Social policy seeks to cushion reform pain while spreading formal employment and skill development.

• 14th-15th c.: Timurid center at Samarkand – 1991: Independence from USSR – 2016-: Reform drive under Mirziyoyev

Baseline: sustained 5-6% growth if reforms continue; upside from rail breakthroughs and export upgrading; downside from water stress, commodity swings, or reform fatigue.