At the moment a ceasefire agreement is negotiated between Hamas and Israel.
Hamas does not agree yet. Why wouldn’t they do it? They are on the loosing end.
The answer might be that, indeed in terms of “winning the war” that they are loosing. But in the public opinion support is raising – or better said, is getting against Israel.
If the war continues, public opinion might even get better for Hamas, because:
- Israel will enter and attack Rafah with ground troops, causing casualties;
- The longer it takes, Gaza people will suffer, the more surrounding countries become angry with Israel;
Hamas has less to loose than Israel, since it’s not a nationstate which needs to consult a government or parliament. It has power over the region without question. Israel on the other hand has an increasing debate about the way to proceed.
Besides that:
- The lock on UNHWR funds is lifted by several countries, meaning money can come in the region again;
Hamas might try to out sit the crisis and go more underground. It doesn’t look all good. The real victim here are the Gaza civilians and the remaining Israeli hostages.
Edit: on the other hand. Israel will likely not move further in giving Hamas more room and negotiation partners like Egypt and possibly Saoudi Arabia or Turkye will put pressure on Hamas to take the agreement.