On 13 April 2024 Iran launched attacks on Isreal using drones and missiles. The attack was carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as well by some supporting militia like Hezbollah, Groups from Syria and the Houthis known as the Axis of Resistance.
Iran chose the timing of the attack careful – as far as you could speak of that. They call it an act of defense and stated that they followed UN rules by informing other nations, that the attack was proportional, that they don’t want escalation.
In terms of proportion it’s a matter of definition. Had Israel not known about it and had more damage been done, or people get killed. In that case proportion had been a different meaning. After all it has cost Israel (and other powers that contributed military assets) material and money. Laying pressure on the burden of the cost of war on top of what they already have.
Apart from that Isreal and it’s allies executed a perfect defensive operation, as stated by the IDF on X, make it a total failed attack. A humiliation for Iran.
The public opinion is not in favor of Israel at this moment – mainly because the continuing war between Hamas and Israel, but the attack of Iran is globally seen as outragious and very risky. This action could easily start a greater conflict in the Middle East. And then what…
The United Nations is calling for de-escalation and asks Israel not to respond with force. The United States of America have stated that – if Israel responds in anyway – they will not be part of it.
And it looks like, this is exactly what Iran is hoping for. That the focus will rather be on the respons of Israel than the Iranian attack itself. If that happens, Israel is to blame if their response will be the trigger to a bigger explosion of events. Some newspapers and opinions are having these kind of headlines already.
But for now, the majority condemns the Iranian attack, giving Isreal a bit of breathing time so to say. And everyone is waiting. Will Israel respond, or not?
It is very well likely that Israel will respond. Just not when and how. It could be very soon. It could also be that it will take a bit of time. That there will be a response can be seen based on:
- The statement of the Israeli War Cabinet that they will respond: those statements are not new. After the Hamas attack on Israel in november, multiple state officials have stated that Hamas needs to be destroyed and that they are worried about extremists at the northern border, so they might have to do something about that treat too;
- It is known that Iran’s ultimate goal is to destroy Isreal making it a constant treat when leaving this as is;
But how will Israel respond?
- It is unlikely that Israel will respond in the same manner as Iran has done. Reason being multiple fronts comes at high costs, unknown allies might be forced into a reaction or involvement and it has negative impact on public opinion
- An option is that Israel makes stealth attacks on military infrastructure such as nucleair sites. This is done before
- More likely is that Israel will target high officials from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, Hezbollah or the Houthi militia. Probably the latter before they target inside Iran
What we can learn from this events:
- Iran has shown it’s capabilities to launch a proportional attack and can may be seen as a Key-player in the region;
- The militant groups known as axis of resistance are looking like a coordinated alliance or army, rather than single operating groups (having the same enemy) but actively participating in global events;
- The regime of Iran has shown it’s own people that they continue to support Hamas and stand by their anti-Israel politics which was received with joy in Teheran
We would advise Isreal not to attack Iran in any way in respons at this moment. The world condemns Iran for their action. Let it be that way.