Why European Companies Should Rethink U.S. Investments

As European firms like Novartis, Pfizer, Volkswagen, and Siemens expand their investments in the U.S., they risk tying their futures to a volatile partner. Short-term economic incentives and a temporarily favorable exchange rate obscure deeper structural risks: political instability, panic-driven corporate culture, and growing protectionism. Europe is not dependent on the U.S. — not for gas, not for markets, and certainly not for leadership. Strategic autonomy begins with saying no.

Key Insights

€10% Appreciation: The euro gained strength from Jan to Apr 2025 — but this currency advantage may not last.
$17.5B+ EU Investments: European companies are pouring billions into the U.S. despite rising systemic risks.
Boardroom Volatility: U.S. multinationals often suffer from reactive, short-term decision-making — unlike steadier EU firms.
Not Dependent: Europe can secure energy from the Gulf and re-engage diplomatically with Russia under the right terms.
Strategic Missed Opportunity: Every euro spent in the U.S. is one not spent building influence in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Introduction: The Illusion of Necessity

For decades, Europe internalized the belief that what happens in the United States eventually happens in Europe — economically, culturally, and politically. That myth is breaking down. The U.S. is no longer a model to emulate, nor a reliable partner. As American politics veer toward chaos and economic nationalism, it’s time for European firms to reconsider the logic of investing in a partner who increasingly treats us with disdain.

Under the renewed shadow of Donald Trump, Europe is again dismissed as irrelevant. If European companies continue to channel billions into U.S. factories and assets in the hope of appeasing a post-democratic America, they are not just making poor business decisions — they are undermining Europe’s strategic independence.

European Investment in the U.S. Surges — But at What Cost?

Despite all signals, several major European firms have announced or executed major investments in the United States in 2024–2025:

Novartis: $300 million committed to expanding three U.S.-based manufacturing sites in Colorado, New Jersey, and Indiana (2024) ¹.
Pfizer: $1.3 billion investment in its Michigan facility for sterile injectable drug production (announced mid-2024). However, in April 2025, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla warned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could halt the company’s U.S. expansion plans, stating: “If these tariffs go into effect, we will need to reconsider.” ².³
Daimler Truck: $450 million investment in Detroit to modernize EV and powertrain production, creating 600 jobs in Michigan⁴.
Volkswagen: $7.1 billion over five years to expand EV development and manufacturing across North America⁵.
Siemens: Over $10 billion committed to American manufacturing and software innovation, including $285 million in new plant expansion⁶.
Mercedes-Benz (Daimler division): announced new high-volume model production in Alabama by 2027⁷.

These moves appear driven not only by subsidy incentives (such as the Inflation Reduction Act), but also by a quiet bet on favorable treatment under a second Trump administration.

Why It Seems Rational (But Isn’t)

From a superficial economic perspective, investing in the U.S. may appear smart — especially in early 2025. The euro has strengthened, making U.S. assets temporarily cheaper. The Biden and Trump administrations alike have rolled out multi-billion-dollar subsidy packages under the Inflation Reduction Act, offering incentives for everything from battery plants to chipmaking. The U.S. remains a massive consumer market with deep capital pools.

Additionally, the Trump administration has consistently used tariffs and bilateral trade pressure as a strategy to force foreign companies to relocate production to the United States, creating American jobs and boosting domestic economic metrics. This tactic is central to the America First economic doctrine: reward those who move operations to the U.S., and punish those who don’t.

What these companies are ignoring is that the American business and political ecosystem is no longer stable, no longer predictable, and no longer trustworthy. That’s not a detail. That’s the difference between a smart investment and a long-term trap.

What European Executives Must Understand About the U.S. Business Climate

European boardrooms often overestimate the coherence and professionalism of American corporate leadership. In reality, U.S. multinationals are often locked in short-term panic cycles, driven more by quarterly earnings and stock market sentiment than by long-term strategic thinking.

Decision-making at the C-level can feel erratic, even improvisational — what one insider called “management by Monday mood.” Direction shifts not based on geopolitical vision, but on how the S&P 500 moved last week. Talent retention is volatile, public messaging inconsistent, and internal priorities often contradictory.

By contrast, European firms tend to be more stable, methodical, and context-aware. They don’t have to play the Wall Street game. That’s a competitive advantage — and we shouldn’t trade it away in a desperate scramble for subsidies or influence.

Pros of Investing in the U.S.

Exchange Rate Advantage: The euro gained 9.4% vs. the dollar between Jan–Apr 2025, making dollar-denominated investments temporarily cheaper⁸.
Access to Subsidies: U.S. incentives (IRA, CHIPS Act) are appealing on paper.
Large Market, Familiar Infrastructure: Many European firms already operate in the U.S., so expanding feels “safe.”

Cons of Investing in the U.S.

U.S. Political Instability: Risk of authoritarian drift, state–federal gridlock, or legal volatility.
Crisis-Driven Corporate Culture: U.S. boardrooms often run on fear and improvisation, not strategy.
Protectionism and Policy Reversals: “Buy American” rules, tariff threats, and hostile rhetoric from both parties.
Reputational Risk: American social instability increasingly conflicts with EU ESG and human rights standards.
Strategic Neglect of the Global South: Investing in the U.S. now means not investing in Africa, Latin America, or ASEAN — the real growth zones.

No, We Are Not Dependent on U.S. Gas

Trump has threatened to cut off U.S. LNG to Europe⁹,¹⁰. The assumption behind such threats is that Europe would have “no choice” but to cave. This is false.

Europe is already negotiating with Qatar and the Gulf states, and its ability to re-engage with Russia under new diplomatic conditions is not out of reach. Energy diversification is underway, and the EU’s shift toward renewables further reduces vulnerability.

The dollar may still be the global reserve currency — but it is structurally weak. The euro, though underused, is more stable. If Europe starts denominating trade deals, energy contracts, and digital settlements in euros instead of dollars, the global balance will shift. Quietly. Permanently.

Instead of appeasing American power, Europe should be attracting it. Companies like Microsoft, Google, Salesforce, Intel, and Apple should be incentivized to move their labs, data centers, cloud IP, and even headquarters to Europe.

We offer legal predictability, institutional trust, and access to global markets. The U.S. offers… culture wars and tax chaos. A U.S. economic collapse won’t happen overnight — but if we stop subsidizing them with our trust, it will come.