State of Affairs: Europe Edition
The current Month is a boil pot of stormy news so far. A point in time with marks that might have an impact on the near future. In this item, we will look at the global issues around and ahead.
Geopolitical Situation
The War in Ukraine reached a 1,000 sad days. Russia, while facing heavy losses, is slowly securing ground, having a longer breath. Common idea is that Ukraine is forced to the negotiating table — also because supporting countries are steering towards an end. For example, Trump wants a peace deal. The European governments except Germany are talking about staying firm for Ukraine, but it is starting to look like support in peptalk rather than weapons and money. With the US ATACMS Missile Systems, Ukraine can hit Russian targets, but likely it’s a short-term help for a slightly better negotiation position.
This might end in a sort of end of war without an official peace agreement. Russia will claim victory and some Ukrainian provinces. Ukraine and Zelenskyy won’t lose the whole war, since a heroic battle has been fought and the people are fed up and tired. North Korea and China can breathe a sigh of relief and get diplomatic results from Russia. The USA will claim its world hegemony again with Trump as Dealmaker. The EU might respond that it would be better if Ukraine had won the war and that it would have happened if.
The question remains then: will Putin be satisfied? Probably: he would have taken back part of history, and area’s that have been named “occupied” such as Donbas and Crimea will be official Russia. And the rest is relieved not to spend more money on the war in Ukraine. And who’s going to pay for the recovery? It might be the bare hands of those who return.
Let’s not forget the ones that never return.
Meanwhile, — in the Middle East, the IDF will keep cleaning Gaza from … terrorists, and slowly working on demising Hezbollah in Lebanon. In Europe, however, many fail to understand that Iran is behind Hezbollah, with a destructive ideology towards everything that is “western”. Let’s hope that an escalation with Iran will be postponed for a while. It could very well be a reason for Israel to wait for it’s promised revenge.
European Politics
With Trumps election in the USA, there will be a new political situation where Europe has to deal with. The America First approach has an inward focus, where international diplomacy, relations, and agreements should benefit the US. Meaning that if the US wants to make or change treaty agreements, or get involved in a conflict, it is worth seeing what the intended effects are for the US itself.
This year’s elections in Europe show a shift in electoral choices, both more focused on the individual and the immediate vicinity than on society as a whole. With fragmentation of the political playing field. We have seen it in Italy, France, and The Netherlands. The outlook points to a similar pattern in Germany. And, as a reflection, a similar movement in the European Parliament.
The European Union is in a kind of identity crisis. The broader opinion is divided by its countries national politics that are turning towards themselves — following the individuals’ “need”. There is a risk that this will limit the field of political vision, and fear of “the other” appears. This is not just populism, but more polarizing politics, causing a growing divide between political views.
For example, Immigration policy thus appears to be more focused on limiting new migrants and promoting return, rather than on smoother and more efficient processing of migrants who have already arrived and participation in society and the labour market. It remains a question whether that decision is research & well thought driven, rather than a more short-term succes/result approach (scoring for the individual self).
In the European Parliament, the second period of von der Leyen’s Commission gained the green light. The near future will point out what the details of the Political Guidelines have to offer in detail. It mentions investments but also has contradicting topics such as reducing energy usage (Green Deal) and at the same time investments in AI (biggest energy drain). Furthermore, several topics are divided on multiple commission’s, such as digitalization & technology and Ukraine approach. Hopefully, this period will focus on the business topics at hand.
Industry
At the same time, China is looking to expand its power and knocking on our backdoor, making one-on-one agreements with France’s Macron and Hungary’s Orban to have influence on people of Chinese-origin and more.
While the EU import duties on Chinese cars are raised, a possible Trade War is still at the horizon. China industry is rapidly improving the quality and durability of its products, catching up the European industries. Mainly Car and Electronic Equipment Manufacturers have to make a move here.
Hand in hand with the industrial development, it should not be forgotten that consumerism and materialism pushes industries and businesses into the wrong direction. It is time to limit the influence of social media platforms (keeping the user addicted), marketplaces (always on sale) to a more responsible and durable direction.
While the EU has invested in regulations, it has a good base on how to work with AI (Artificial Intelligence Act), CS (Cybersecurity Act) and Equal Competition — a catch-up in technology is needed. There are no real alternatives for Cloud Solution Providers (such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google) in Europe, and infrastructure (glass fibre cable networks for internet / communications) depends on foreign entities. With the European Space Agency (ESA), a big step forward is made towards a widely applicable satellite system. More investments are desired.
Space and balance of urban areas and nature remain a challenge. Rather than forcing measure agreements in extending spaces, it is worth looking at the big picture of the EU and looking for internal exchange of landscapes and nature, for example.
Main Risks
- A lack of joint approach on helping Ukraine may leave the country a desolated space for years with the risk of a new conflict
- The EU is getting behind on innovative initiatives and depending on foreign entities
- The EU is internal divided by national politics on important topics, such as internal market, immigration, and environment
- In a growing geopolitical world, the EU lacks influence to negotiate nor position itself as a respectable conversation or negotiation partner — making statements look like rhetoric without meaning or consequences
Call to Action
In a global multipolar world, where the US takes a step back as safeguarding partner, the European countries need to become self-reliant, in relation to resources, trade and safety. A more united approach on broader topics is needed. Moreover, the EU should consider becoming a geopolitical union in close cooperation with NATO, to become one of the geopolitical factors in the balance of power.
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