A complementary framework for long-term stability
Introduction
Europe is entering a decisive phase in the debate on how the war in Ukraine might end—and how peace, once achieved, could be sustained. Current discussions increasingly focus on security guarantees, peacekeeping forces, and deterrence mechanisms intended to prevent a renewed conflict.
This document does not challenge those efforts, nor does it seek to replace existing diplomatic or military tracks. Instead, it explores a parallel stabilization logic, grounded in a simple observation: Europe’s long-term capacity to deter renewed war through permanent military deployment alone is limited—politically, demographically, and industrially.
Nine months ago, After the War: The Eurasian Covenant outlined a European framework for post-war stability that deliberately stepped outside the dominant logic of military deterrence and permanent force projection. It argued that Europe’s long-term role would not be to mirror American security guarantees, but to design political and economic structures capable of sustaining peace once fighting stopped.
Since then, the debate has moved closer to that moment. American and European peace proposals—variously framed as 25-, 28-, or 20-point plans—now circulate alongside discussions of European-led peacekeeping forces and long-term security guarantees for Ukraine. At the same time, it has become increasingly clear that Europe’s ability to sustain large-scale, permanent military deterrence in Ukraine is constrained.
The framework presented below is therefore not a new theory, nor a revision of the original Covenant. It is an operational addendum. It translates the core logic of the Eurasian Covenant into a concise draft format, designed to sit alongside existing peace proposals as a complementary stabilization track. Where prevailing frameworks emphasize deterrence and security guarantees, this draft focuses on conditional integration, automatic compliance mechanisms, and reversible openness as tools to reduce the long-term burden on military enforcement.
It is offered as a European contribution to the wider peace discussion: pragmatic, conditional, and reversible. Its purpose is not to claim superiority, but to widen the range of viable options for a durable peace.
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The European Covenant Draft
This draft is structured in two layers:
- Points 1–15 address the immediate and medium-term question: How does the war stop—and how does it stay stopped?
- Points 16–20 address the longer-term structural question: How does peace survive the next decade?
The second layer does not introduce new preconditions. It provides normative and institutional anchors intended to stabilize the post-war order once the core framework is in place.
Layer I — Core Stabilisation Framework
How does the war stop and stay stopped? (1–15)
- Ceasefire with binding sequencing
A ceasefire shall be accompanied by a clearly defined sequence of obligations: withdrawal steps, verification milestones, and corresponding political and economic measures. No step is assumed irreversible without compliance. - Withdrawal as baseline, not concession
The withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied Ukrainian territory constitutes the baseline condition for any further political or economic arrangements. - Separate treatment of Crimea
Crimea shall be addressed as a distinct and long-term negotiation file. Any interim arrangements must include full demilitarization, minority protections, international monitoring, and guaranteed civilian access rights. - Verification before trust
All commitments are subject to verification by a standing monitoring mechanism with access rights agreed by all signatories. Trust follows compliance, not declarations. - Joint monitoring architecture
A joint monitoring body—comprising Ukrainian, Russian, European, and neutral representatives—shall oversee compliance, reporting publicly and symmetrically on violations. - Automatic response to violations
Material violations trigger predefined responses. These responses are automatic, graduated, and proportional, removing ambiguity and political improvisation from enforcement. - Dispute resolution ladder
Disputes follow a structured escalation path: technical review, political mediation, and—where agreed in advance—international legal adjudication. - Sanctions relief as conditional mechanism
Sanctions are lifted incrementally and strictly tied to verified compliance milestones. Compliance assessments are conducted by the joint monitoring body. Reversal clauses are explicit and enforceable. - Frozen assets under conditional release
Frozen sovereign assets are managed as conditional instruments. Release or use is tied to compliance and reconstruction benchmarks under international oversight. - Reconstruction as shared obligation
Reconstruction of Ukraine is framed as a shared European responsibility, with long-term financial commitments. Russian participation, where agreed, is structured as contribution rather than punishment. - Ukraine as an integrated bridge economy
Ukraine is positioned as a hub for trade, energy transit, processing industries, and infrastructure linking Europe and Eurasia, under international investment guarantees. - Energy cooperation under redesigned governance
Energy cooperation may resume under new governance structures that prioritize transparency, diversification, environmental standards, and shared control over critical infrastructure. - Gradual reopening of borders
The framework explicitly aims to avoid a permanent hard border between Ukraine and Russia. Mobility of people, goods, and services is restored gradually, conditionally, and reversibly. - Civil and political reset without imposed outcomes
Political developments within states are not externally dictated. Internationally monitored processes are supported without predetermined results or ideological framing. - European strategic autonomy through non-military stabilization
Europe strengthens its capacity to manage crises through intelligence sharing, economic instruments, infrastructure resilience, and de-escalation mechanisms—reducing reliance on permanent forward troop deployments.
Layer II — Structural and Normative Anchors
How does peace survive the next decade? (16–20)
The following elements do not constitute preconditions for ceasefire or withdrawal. They are designed as parallel, long-horizon stabilizers that reduce the risk of renewed conflict once the core framework is in place.
- Shared historical narrative initiative
Europe, Ukraine, and Russia support a structured process of historical and cultural dialogue aimed at acknowledging shared pasts and divergent experiences, without imposing a single narrative. - Narrative dignity and public framing
Post-war arrangements avoid zero-sum victory narratives. Public communication frameworks are designed to preserve dignity for all parties, reducing incentives for revanchism. - Long-term energy and infrastructure integration
Beyond immediate reconstruction, the parties commit to exploring shared energy, transport, and infrastructure projects under redesigned governance structures and environmental safeguards. - Nuclear risk reduction and doctrine dialogue
The post-war framework includes a dedicated track for nuclear risk reduction, including non-first-use commitments and expanded strategic dialogue among nuclear powers. - Institutionalized Eurasian cooperation forums
A standing set of Eurasian forums is established to manage economic, security, and cultural cooperation beyond bilateral crisis management.
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Positioning and Scope
This Covenant Draft does not assume the absence of military deterrence. It assumes that deterrence alone is insufficient to guarantee long-term peace in Europe.
Where current plans emphasize military guarantees and alliance enforcement, this framework focuses on structural interdependence, automatic compliance mechanisms, and reversible integration. It seeks to reduce the burden on deterrence by addressing the political and economic drivers of renewed conflict.
The approach is intentionally conditional. Openness is not unconditional trust. Integration is not forgiveness. Every step is tied to compliance, verification, and reversibility.
Anticipating a common criticism
A common criticism of integration-based peace frameworks is that they underestimate bad-faith behavior. This concern is legitimate. The Covenant Draft does not assume trust, goodwill, or rapid reconciliation. Openness and cooperation are conditional, monitored, and reversible at every stage.
The framework’s central claim is not that integration replaces deterrence, but that deterrence alone—particularly where capacity and political will are limited—cannot sustain peace indefinitely. Designing structures that make renewed conflict economically and politically irrational is therefore not naïve; it is a risk-management strategy grounded in Europe’s own historical experience.
Closing
This document is offered as a contribution—not a verdict. It reflects a European attempt to think beyond familiar templates and to confront Europe’s own constraints honestly.
If peace in Ukraine is to be durable, it must rest not only on force, but on structures that make renewed war progressively irrational. The European Covenant Draft is an exploration of how such structures might be designed.
We publish it in the hope that it adds value to an urgent and complex discussion—and that it expands, rather than narrows, the space of possible futures.
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Comparative Annex
European Covenant Draft vs. Current US / EU Peace Proposals
1. Strategic Logic
| Dimension | US / EU Drafts | European Covenant Draft |
|---|---|---|
| Core stabiliser | Military deterrence | Structural interdependence |
| Enforcement | Political + military escalation | Automatic compliance triggers |
| Role of alliances | Central | Acknowledged but decentered |
| Time horizon | Short–medium | Long-term |
The draft is a different angle. It addresses a layer most current drafts leave underdeveloped.
2. Military Dimension
| Aspect | US / EU Drafts | Covenant Draft |
|---|---|---|
| Peacekeeping forces | Assumed or debated | Deliberately avoided |
| Article 5 logic | Central reference | Not foundational |
| Ukraine’s army | Security dependency | Sufficient self-defence |
Classification: Downplaying Article 5 is strategically honest, not naïve. It reflects Europe’s real constraints and avoids overpromising.
3. Borders and Geography
| Aspect | US / EU Drafts | Covenant Draft |
|---|---|---|
| Borders | Likely hardened | Gradually reopened |
| Mobility | Restricted | Conditional and reversible |
| Long-term frontier | De facto Iron Curtain risk | Explicitly rejected |
Value: The draft directly addresses long-term continental fragmentation—something current proposals mostly accept as inevitable.
4. Sanctions and Assets
| Aspect | US / EU Drafts | Covenant Draft |
|---|---|---|
| Sanctions | Punitive leverage | Conditional instrument |
| Frozen assets | Politicised bargaining | Milestone-based release |
| Reversibility | Often vague | Explicit |
Assessment: This approach reduces incentives for sabotage and “nothing-to-lose” escalation.
5. Political Transitions
| Aspect | US / EU Drafts | Covenant Draft |
|---|---|---|
| Internal politics | Implicit regime outcomes | Non-imposed |
| Elections | Instrumentalised | Supported, not dictated |
Strength: This avoids externally imposed legitimacy crises that often destabilize post-war settlements.
6. Nuclear and Escalation Risk
| Aspect | US / EU Drafts | Covenant Draft |
|---|---|---|
| Nuclear risk | Largely implicit | Explicitly addressed |
| De-escalation | Secondary | Structural priority |
Gap Filled: The draft is one of the few that treats nuclear risk reduction as a design requirement, not an afterthought.
