China’s Fourth Plenum — Xi Tightens Control as Party Sets Course for the Next Five Years

Beijing’s Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, held from 20–23 October 2025, was formally about planning. Yet it served a deeper function: reaffirming Party unity, economic direction, and the leadership core of Xi Jinping. The week ended with a communiqué rich in ideology but cautious in tone — a reminder that China’s next five years will be guided by consolidation rather than change.

The Plenum and its Function

Plenums are the Communist Party’s highest policy sessions between congresses. This one gathered more than 300 senior officials to review the achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan and to approve recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). Chaired by Xi, it produced a 5 000-word communiqué emphasizing high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and security.

The communiqué framed the coming decade as a “critical stage” toward socialist modernization by 2035. Its vocabulary was defensive, invoking the need to “dare to fight and be good at fighting” — Xi’s preferred phrase for resilience under pressure.

Economic Course Correction

Officials said China would employ “strategic proactiveness” to inject certainty into a volatile world economy. The plan prioritizes domestic production, advanced manufacturing, and job stability.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported youth unemployment at 17.7 percent in September, slightly lower than August’s record 18.9 percent but still severe after 12.2 million new graduates entered the labour market. The government has widened civil-service eligibility to ease the strain, and the communiqué reaffirmed full employment as a political goal.

Debt control and local-government finance also featured prominently. The Party pledged to “defuse local-government debt risks through active and prudent measures.”

The draft plan envisions a modern industrial system built around “new quality productive forces.” It aims to preserve manufacturing’s share of the economy while advancing digital infrastructure and autonomy in semiconductors, aerospace, and AI.

Infrastructure development, including strategic water resource management, is highlighted as both an economic necessity and a means to enhance national security, ensuring resilience amid external pressures.

Environmental policy remains part of the narrative. The Beautiful China initiative and carbon-neutral targets are tied directly to growth and security. In foreign affairs, the text promises “high-standard opening up” and “mutually beneficial cooperation,” signalling selective engagement under continued Party control.

Power and Control

Beyond economics, the session confirmed personnel moves that underline Xi’s tightening grip. The communiqué announced the expulsion of nine senior generals, including He Weidong and Miao Hua, for “grave violations of Party discipline.” Their replacements are recognised Xi loyalists.

Zhang Shengmin, a veteran of the disciplinary apparatus, was elevated to Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission, consolidating oversight of the armed forces within Xi’s circle. These moves continue a pattern of discipline through rotation and control through loyalty.

Outside the closed sessions, narrative discipline was reinforced through symbolism. Beijing designated October 25 as “Taiwan Restoration Day,” linking sovereignty to national memory. Meanwhile, an online ideological trend dubbed “Winology” (赢学) — claiming Western observers always expect China to lose — gained state amplification. Both reinforce morale and internal cohesion at a time of slower growth.

In China, news functions as part of the political story itself—meaning is conveyed not just by facts but through tone, omission, and repetition. Official coverage shapes perception, requiring readers to interpret subtle cues. Within this coded space, interpretations diverge: some see tightening control; others view the moves as an overdue clean-up of corruption or an orchestrated campaign to weaken Xi’s rivals — “sawing at the chair legs,” as one Chinese expression puts it. Rumours of protest and conspiracy coexist with displays of loyalty, creating an atmosphere where fact, intention, and perception overlap.

Social Context

Behind official optimism lies a society navigating a period of adjustment under evolving conditions. Graduates increasingly pursue state-sector employment for stability, while consumption remains subdued and property markets show persistent weakness outside major cities. The five-year plan’s social response is framed around Strategic Patience, with a focus on jobs, welfare, and Ideological Confidence. Rather than prioritizing rapid market reform, the Party signals a long-term approach, aiming to sustain social cohesion and reinforce the Social Contract between the state and its citizens. Within this context, the Party emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability and unity, encouraging society to align with national goals and adapt to gradual transformation. The Information Sphere continues to play a strategic role in shaping public sentiment, guiding expectations, and managing narratives as the country moves through an era of moderated growth and heightened global uncertainty.

Leadership and Outlook

Although endorsed collectively, the communiqué bears Xi’s personal signature. Officials confirmed that Xi Jinping directly guided and edited the 15th Five-Year Plan, embedding his doctrine of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. The plan thus functions as both roadmap and ideological statement. Zhang Shengmin’s new post within the military leadership further integrates discipline and defence under Xi’s authority.

The Fourth Plenum closed without surprises but with intent. Continuity, discipline, and control remain the chosen tools to navigate global instability. Its language echoes the Party’s earlier white paper A Global Community of Shared Future (2023), rejecting Western hegemony and promoting multipolar order. Together these texts form a single message: China’s system will adapt internally but move cautiously toward any external change. If transformation comes, it will begin—as always—in silence.