Americas Risk Monitor – April 2025

Brief with the most recent emerging or escalating humanitarian and geopolitical risks in the Americas as of April 2025:

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🔴 Haiti – Security Collapse and Humanitarian Disaster

Armed gangs control 80% of Port-au-Prince as government forces retreat.
Widespread looting of UN and NGO aid convoys.
U.S. and Canada evacuate embassy staff amid street battles.
Food insecurity and cholera outbreaks rising rapidly.

📌 Signal tags: Haiti, state collapse, gang violence, humanitarian crisis

Region: Caribbean
Country: Haiti
Date: April 2025
Type: State Collapse, Urban Conflict
Phase: Critical
Confidence: High

Summary:
Haiti faces near-complete security collapse, with armed groups replacing state functions and humanitarian conditions deteriorating.

Key Actors:

Haitian armed gangs
Haitian National Police (HNP)
UN agencies
U.S., Canadian governments

Trigger:
Collapse of police control in central Port-au-Prince.

Impact:

Mass displacement
Famine and medical emergencies
Regional refugee flows

Signal Strength: 🔴 Critical
Watchpoints:

Expansion of gang control to rural areas
International intervention force deployment

Sources:

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🟠 Ecuador – Crime Surge and Political Instability

Cartel violence surges, including bombings and assassinations in Guayaquil and Quito.
Government declares state of emergency in five provinces.
Political crisis worsens after assassination of a presidential candidate.
Prison riots spread to multiple regions.

📌 Signal tags: Ecuador, organized crime, political instability, state fragility

Region: South America
Country: Ecuador
Date: April 2025
Type: Criminal Conflict, Political Crisis
Phase: Escalating
Confidence: High

Summary:
Ecuador faces rising cartel-driven violence threatening state authority, with signs of political breakdown.

Key Actors:

Ecuadorian cartels (Los Choneros, others)
Government security forces
Local civilian militias

Trigger:
Expansion of cartel operations linked to weakened security forces.

Impact:

Mass displacement from cities
Economic disruption
Erosion of political legitimacy

Signal Strength: 🟠 Escalating
Watchpoints:

State collapse in coastal regions
Calls for international security assistance

Sources:

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🟠 Venezuela – Border and Migration Pressure on Colombia

Border clashes between Venezuelan forces and armed groups near Arauca.
Migration toward Colombia surging amid food shortages.
Colombian border towns overwhelmed by humanitarian needs.
Venezuela’s internal economic collapse accelerating.

📌 Signal tags: Venezuela, Colombia, migration crisis, border violence

Region: South America
Country: Venezuela, Colombia
Date: April 2025
Type: Border Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis
Phase: Escalating
Confidence: Medium–High

Summary:
Venezuelan instability is spilling across borders, creating humanitarian strains and security risks in Colombia.

Key Actors:

Venezuelan military
Colombian security forces
Migrant communities

Trigger:
Venezuelan crackdown on dissidents near the border.

Impact:

Border instability
Increased migration pressure on Colombia
Potential regional destabilization

Signal Strength: 🟠 Escalating
Watchpoints:

Armed group expansion into Colombia
Formal refugee emergency declarations

Sources:

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🟡 Mexico – Localized Violence Surges Ahead of Elections

Cartel violence spikes in Guerrero, Michoacán, and Jalisco states.
Over 40 political candidates attacked since January.
Civil society groups warn of intimidation campaigns in rural areas.
Government deploys National Guard units to protect polling stations.

📌 Signal tags: Mexico, election violence, organized crime, security challenges

Region: North America
Country: Mexico
Date: April 2025
Type: Criminal Violence, Electoral Instability
Phase: Ongoing / Emerging
Confidence: High

Summary:
Organized crime violence threatens Mexico’s upcoming elections, risking democratic backsliding.

Key Actors: